How can the uncertainty in the natural inflow regime propagate into the assessment of water resource systems?     

《Advances in water resources》2014

The Canadian Rocky Mountain headwaters support the water resource systems of the Canadian Prairies. Significant variations in natural headwater contributions have been observed due to warming climate. Projecting future natural headwater flows under climate change effects, however, has large uncertainty. First, there are difficulties in climate modeling and downscaling in alpine regions. Second, streamflow modeling in mountainous areas is extremely challenging. There is therefore a need to understand the effects of uncertainty in the natural inflow regime, and in particular how this translates into uncertainty in representing the state and the outflow of water resource systems. Considering the Oldman River basin in Alberta, Canada, we synthesized different inflow regimes based on site/inter-site properties of the historical inflow regime. The water resources system was then conditioned on the synthesized inflow regimes to identify the mechanisms of error propagation from the headwater streamflows to the water allocations. The results show that the response of the water resource system to the uncertainty in the generated inflow regime depends on the system state, flow condition and the component of interest. Generally, the response of the reservoirs to the uncertainty in the estimated inflow regime is more significant in dry years, in particular during low flow conditions. The response at the system outlet is rather different, as the propagation of the headwater uncertainty is more significant during high flow conditions. Also, similar inflow estimates in terms of error and uncertainty may result in different error and uncertainty estimates in the simulated outflows; therefore, lower bias and uncertainty in estimating the regional inflow regime does not necessarily mean lower bias and uncertainty in simulating the streamflow at the outlet of the system. Our results provide improved understanding of uncertainty propagation through complex water resource systems, but also portray the need for better climate and hydrological modeling in the Rocky Mountains for improved water management in the Canadian Prairies, particularly in the face of uncertain climate futures. This will be crucial if the natural headwater inflows decline and/or the system faces drought conditions.  相似文献   

陕西省镇安县东沟金矿生产坑道系统涌水量预测方法对比     

郭昂青 《地质与资源》2012,21(6):563-565

根据矿区的水文地质条件和勘探坑道系统长期排水量动态观测资料和钻孔抽水试验资料,分别采用水文地质比拟预测法和Q-S曲线外推预测法,对矿区生产坑道系统涌水量进行预测对比.利用此方法预测的生产坑道系统涌水量,比较接近实际情况,预测的生产坑道系统最大涌水量可以作为生产坑道系统设计排水量的依据.对条件类似的矿山可采用水文地质比拟法预测坑道系统的涌水量.  相似文献   

Effective typhoon characteristics and their effects on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Gwo-Fong Lin  Guo-Rong ChenPei-Yu Huang 《Advances in water resources》2010

This paper describes the identification of effective typhoon characteristics and the development of a new type of hourly reservoir inflow forecasting model with the effective typhoon characteristics. Firstly, a comparison of support vector machines (SVMs), which is a novel kind of neural networks (NNs), and back-propagation networks (BPNs) is made to select an appropriate NN-based model. The results show that SVM-based models are more appropriate than BPN-based models because of their higher accuracy and much higher efficiency. In addition, effective typhoon characteristics for improving forecasting performance are identified from all the collected typhoon information. Then the effective typhoon characteristics (the position of the typhoon and the distance between the typhoon center and the reservoir) are added to the proposed SVM-based models. Next, a performance comparison of models with and without effective typhoon characteristics is conducted to clearly highlight the effects of effective typhoon characteristics on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting. To reach a just conclusion, the performance is evaluated by cross validation, and the improvement in performance due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics is tested by paired comparison t-tests at the 5% significance level. The results confirm that effective typhoon characteristics do improve the forecasting performance and the improvement increases with increasing lead-time, especially when the rainfall data are not available. For four- to six-hour ahead forecasts, the improvement due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics increases from 3% to 18% and from 10% to 113% for Categories I (rainfall data are available) and II (rainfall data are not available), respectively. In conclusion, effective typhoon characteristics are recommended as key inputs for reservoir inflow forecasting during typhoons. The proposed SVM-based models with effective typhoon characteristics are expected to provide more accurate forecasts than BPN-based models. The proposed modeling technique is also expected to be useful to support reservoir operation systems and other disaster warning systems.  相似文献   

离层积水存在的矿井工作面涌水量预计     

程新明  赵团芝  李小琴  李成明  孙如华 《煤田地质与勘探》2007,35(4):34-37

通过对某矿发生特大顶板突水工作面的充水条件分析,认为工作面采动叠加影响,在顶板厚层砂岩中形成的离层积水,是突水的主要充水水源。采用经验类比法和当量流径法,基于工作面涌水量值为正常涌水量与离层裂隙积水引起的涌水量之和,提出了涌水量预计计算理论公式,预计了该工作面未采区段恢复生产的涌水量大小。经实际开采检验,该方法基本可行。   相似文献   

对江苏沛县新庄铁矿区富水性规律的初步认识   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

景佳俊  陶文杰  管祯 《中国地质调查》2016,3(6):68-74

江苏沛县新庄铁矿属于典型的矽卡岩类接触交代型铁矿,矿区主要富水含水层为奥陶系灰岩。分析了该矿区地下水补径排条件、矿区含水层特征及断层富水性特征,初步总结了该矿区富水性规律。认为矿坑涌水主要受上覆灰岩控制,其次受构造断层控制; 断层的涌水量受裂隙充填影响变化较大,增加了突水、透水的风险性,将直接威胁矿山的生产安全。总结该矿区富水性规律,可为国内相同类型矿山的前期勘查及后期矿床开采提供参考。  相似文献   

在6厘米波长对类星体3C454.3的九站VLBI观测     

吴盛殷  I.Pauliny-Toth  R.Porcas  A.Zensus 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1986,(2)

3C454.3是近几年引起广泛注意的一个强活动射电类星体,它有毫角秒尺度的核——喷流结构,其核在1981年的一次流量密度大爆发之后,显示出“超光速增亮”现象,在6厘米波长,用包括欧洲、美国及南非的9个射电望远镜,于1983年10月对3C454.3进行了甚长基线干涉网观测。观测结果除了证实其核——喷流结构,显示了从毫角秒到角秒尺度上该类星体结构的系统弯曲外,还清楚地揭示了“超光速增亮”所预期的,在1981年8月到1983年1月期间,核的超光速膨胀现象。  相似文献   

基于多源资料的一次弓状强飑线成熟结构研究          下载免费PDF全文

孙玉婷  李红莉  汪小康  康兆萍  肖艳姣  林建 《气象科学》2023,43(5):632-642

利用局地分析和预报系统（Local Analysis and Prediction System，LAPS），结合多源资料，分析了2018年3月4日暖区强飑线成熟阶段的热动力结构和大风形成机制。结果表明：暖区内层结不稳定范围向东扩展和强的垂直风切变，驱动飑线组织化加强并向前移动和发展。成熟阶段飑线热动力结构呈现出两支强入流和冷池的典型特征，即前侧入流在低层（0~3.0 km）辐合上升，部分气流在高层翻转流向系统前侧，无后向流出；后侧中层（4.0~5.5 km）入流进入云体后部，在水凝物强烈相变降温作用下，密度增大转而下沉；下沉气流区降雨蒸发冷却增强了雷暴冷池。相比于飑线南段单一的对流线，北段弓形特点突出，后侧入流下降，加之存在尾随层状云，有更大的潜在冷却作用，促进气流加速下沉增强地面雷暴高压，最终导致更强的极端大风。  相似文献   

Numerical flow and performance analysis of a water-jet axial flow pump   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hong Gao  Wanlai Lin  Zhaohui Du 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(16):1604-1614

The purpose of the present study is to investigate the performance and three-dimensional flow fields in a water-jet pump. TASCflow is employed to simulate the rotator-stator coupling flow field. A standard k-ε turbulence model combined with standard wall functions is used. In order to investigate the effect of a rear stator on flow fields, the flows in two water-jet pumps with and without a rear stator are studied. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-predicted overall performances are in good agreement with the experimental results. Then the flow fields, such as the pressure distribution on the blade surfaces, and the axial and tangential velocity distribution, especially the radial loading distribution, are investigated at different flow rates. In addition, the effects of a rear stator and different spacings between the rotor and the stator on the overall performance and the flow fields of the water-jet pump are also investigated.  相似文献   

The accelerated Kepler problem     

F. Namouni  M. Guzzo 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2007,99(1):31-44

The accelerated Kepler problem (AKP) is obtained by adding a constant acceleration to the classical two-body Kepler problem. This setting models the dynamics of a jet-sustaining accretion disk and its content of forming planets as the disk loses linear momentum through the asymmetric jet-counterjet system it powers. The dynamics of the accelerated Kepler problem is analyzed using physical as well as parabolic coordinates. The latter naturally separate the problem’s Hamiltonian into two unidimensional Hamiltonians. In particular, we identify the origin of the secular resonance in the AKP and determine analytically the radius of stability boundary of initially circular orbits that are of particular interest to the problem of radial migration in binary systems as well as to the truncation of accretion disks through stellar jet acceleration.  相似文献   

Three-dimensional simulations of a starburst wind     

Jackie L. Cooper  Geoffrey V. Bicknell  Ralph S. Sutherland  Joss Bland-Hawthorn 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2007,311(1-3):99-103

In order to better understand the formation of a starburst-driven wind, we have performed a series of three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations in an inhomogeneous interstellar medium. We present the results of these simulations, which provide new insights into the formation of the optical filaments and the origin of the soft X-ray emission.  相似文献